July 14

MLB PrizePicks Plays | Friday 7/14/23

Top MLB PrizePicks player props for July 14th, 2023.

Finding the best value plays daily by using the DFS Crunch projection model. If you want access to the projections and our advanced lineup optimizer for Daily Fantasy Sports, just click here!

Fernando Tatis Jr. – More 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

  • There are a lot of games to monitor due to the weather, including this SD vs PHI game. As of now, it looks like the rain will hold and if Tatis can get a full game in, he is one of the top plays of the slate. Projected for 12.3 against LHP Christopher Sanchez while the wind is blowing out at 10mph.

Shohei Ohtani – More 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

  • After being in a slump, Ohtani had a monster game right before the All Star break putting up 29 FPTS and also hitting a Home Run. This is a good sign as he was dealing with blisters prior to this. That being said, all we care about is what the numbers are telling us today and the Crunch model projects Ohtani for 12.1 vs J.P. France.

Ronald Acuna Jr. – More 10 Hitter Fantasy Score

  • Bumps are inevitable in the player prop community and here’s an example as Ronald Acuna Jr. bumped from 9.5 to 10 since last night. If you were in our free Discord community, I posted this play at 9.5. I personally don’t like playing bumped plays but at 10 fpts, the model is still giving this a 3.3 projection difference. Ronald’s odds (via DraftKings SportsBook) also favors this play.
  • Hits + Runs + RBIS – Over 2.5 at -135
  • Stolen Bases – Over 0.5 at -145
  • This is key as PrizePicks gives +5 FPTS for a stolen base.

More options

  • Luis Castillo – More 96.5 Pitches Thrown
  • Shohei Ohtani – More 95.5 Pitches Thrown
  • Corbin Burnes – Under 34.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

How to be profitable on PrizePicks

The optimal slip on PrizePicks is playing a 5 or 6 parlay. The risk is higher but the payout justifies for it long term. It is not recommend to play 3 plays (flex or power) since the payout is much worse compared to other sites, like Underdog Fantasy that offers a 6x payout if you get 3/3 correct instead of 5x on PrizePicks. 4 (flex or power) is the next best choice, followed by a 2 power slip.

An important note – Although playing a 2 play slip is not recommend, I believe it’s viable to play with FPTS. It has a higher chance of winning compared to a 5 or 6 parlay but the payout is less. That being said, it is definitely the best way to build your bankroll and not force a bigger slip just because it’s the optimal payout. If you are confident in just 2 picks (especially FPTS), it would be fine. Just know that you would be getting a higher ROI by playing 5 or 6 flex slips.

Mix and match (also known as round robin) is where you take a pool of plays and submit every possible combination. For example, if you are confident in 3 plays, the total combination would be 3.

  • Player A
  • Player B
  • Player C

Combination A+B

Combination A+C

Combination B+C

I’ll be posting an official guide on how to be profitable on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy soon. Stay tuned!

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out at @rondoughdfs on Twitter or Threads

I’m also around in the DFS Crunch Discord community. Come join the Crunch family for free 💪

Rajon Rondough

About the author

Rondough has been playing DFS for the last 5 years as a core team member of DFS Crunch. He specializes in cash game contests and is a community leader at DFS Crunch.

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